Flu and RSV are sustaining California’s sniffly season, COVID but to surge this winter

The season of sniffles and coughs has come once more. However whereas influenza and RSV exercise is “reasonable and rising” round California, COVID exercise is unusually low for the vacation season.

The latest weekly replace from California’s Division of Public Well being exhibits the take a look at positivity fee for flu has risen by practically 4 share factors in per week to 13.2% as of Dec. 14, the latest obtainable information. The COVID positivity fee is at 2.3%, rising 0.2 share factors from the earlier week.

The well being division’s weekly updates are posted most Fridays, however the respiratory virus experiences for the final two weeks of the 12 months will not be reported till January.

“COVID is rising, however influenza is main the pack proper now,” stated Dr. John Swartzberg, medical professor emeritus on the UC Berkeley College of Public Well being.

Since COVID emerged on the finish of the 2019-2020 respiratory virus season, it has been by far essentially the most lethal of the respiratory viruses for which the state tracks and publishes weekly information, although it has killed fewer individuals every of the previous couple of years in comparison with early within the pandemic.

Since July 1, there have been 1,873 COVID deaths throughout California—with the summer time surge not subsiding till late August—and 89 flu deaths.

After the late summer time surge, COVID deaths as soon as once more reached new lows, and testing, hospitalizations and deaths are simply now beginning to present indicators of a rise as we head into the brand new 12 months.

“If you happen to take a look at wastewater information, COVID is clearly rising all through america and definitely in California,” Swartzberg stated.

In Santa Clara County, wastewater measurements present the identical sample. County public well being officers monitor native wastewater and take a look at for concentrations of the viruses in 4 native sewersheds. In line with aggregated wastewater surveillance information monitored by the state well being division, COVID ranges in your complete Bay Space area have simply crossed from low to medium and are rising.

Influenza concentrations began to rise in November and have continued to rise by way of December. RSV, or respiratory syncytial virus, has been on the rise since late November. Swartzberg stated that RSV might have peaked, however COVID continues to be anticipated to surge later within the season.

COVID has been at low concentrations within the county’s 4 sewersheds because the center of October after a protracted surge that lasted from June by way of August, with concentrations measuring at excessive concentrations for a lot of that point across the county.

Now COVID ranges appear to be the bottom they have been in December up to now a number of years. “It is trying higher than final 12 months, and final 12 months was the perfect winter we had,” Swartzberg stated.

Despite the fact that COVID vaccination numbers are decrease than they had been within the first years of their availability, some immunity from this summer time’s surge continues to be lingering in the neighborhood. However the quantity of people that have obtained the latest vaccination is “disappointingly low,” in Swartzberg’s opinion. Influenza vaccination charges are increased however nowhere close to early COVID vaccination charges.

A brand new RSV vaccine, which is advisable for the very younger, these over 75 and another high-risk individuals, is perhaps contributing to the general enchancment in charges of that virus this 12 months in comparison with final 12 months, Swartzberg stated. Because the starting of this respiratory virus season on July 1, California has reported 21 deaths because of the virus, together with 4 kids, in comparison with 33 on the similar level final 12 months.

“RSV seems prefer it’s on monitor for a greater 12 months,” he stated.

And whereas loads has modified, together with the prevalence of COVID at this 12 months’s vacation dinner tables in comparison with the previous couple of years, Swartzberg’s basic recommendation has not: “Please get immunized. It isn’t too late.”

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